Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Latest from Dan Steinbock, ICA Institute's Research Director of International Business

Free Trade at Risk (HKGCC Bulletin)
In late May, the monthly Bulletin by the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce published Dr Steinbock's analysis of the U.S. Presidential Election 2008. It was based on his presentation at the HKGCC in the March election panel. "The renewed focus on the economy and increasing skepticism over economic globalization," he concludes, "go hand in hand with a more critical view of global trade in general and trade with China in particular."

Rise of Chinese Metropolises
"In the past, the wealthy OECD cities led the world economy," Dr Steinbock noted in his first commentary to Shanghai Daily (July 1, 2008), the largest English-language daily of China's financial capital. "Today, economic gravity is shifting to the emerging metropolises in the East, and China is showing the way." Based on his research, Dr Steinbock noted that the role of Chinese cities is becoming critical worldwide. "In the West, many urban leaders still think that they are competing with other established cities. They are in for a surprise. In the new city competition, the cities of the emerging economies are showing the way."

Oil Prices Threatens Globalization (China Daily)
China Daily (July 9, 2008), China's leading English-language newspaper, released Dr Steinbock's commentary, "Oil Threatens Globalization": During the past 30 years, global economic integration has supported extraordinary global growth. The take-off of large emerging economies, particularly China, has had a great positive impact on the world economy. If the cost of moving things and people continues to soar, globalization will erode and regionalization will gain." The commentary was also published by Xinhua, China's leading news agency.

Mobile TV in India
In the new Broadcast & Cablesat, India's premier magazine on media content and technologies, Dr Steinbock is featured as the guest columnist. Writing on the potential of mobile TV in India, he urges Indian firms to engage in pioneering strategies: "Since the cable revolution in the 1980s, marketers have been lamenting over the demise of mass television. Unlike the TV set, mobile devices are ubiquitous and closest to our heart – a 'must' means to achieve reach and frequency in mass markets. Mobile TV will play a key role in the cutting-edge mobile marketplace. India is well positioned to develop a substantial position in this market. However, pioneers cannot be followers – they must be among the innovators."

The Next Stage in China's Growth
In the opening week of the Olympics, China Daily (August 14) published Dr Steinbock's commentary on the next stage in China's growth. "The first challenge of China's economic development was to overcome poverty. Now the nation is preparing for the second challenge - achieving prosperity," he says. "Recently, some Western observers have expressed concern for what they call China's rising "nationalism" and "protectionism". These perceptions may be motivated by vested interests - concerns over China's rising economy and power." Unlike many other observers, Dr Steinbock says that the US and Chinese growth models "need not be seen as mutually exclusive, but complementary. In the Cold War era, the American model played a critical role in the increasing prosperity of Western Europe and Japan. In the post-Cold War era, the Chinese model can have a substantial role in spreading growth across emerging Asia and beyond." The commentary was also published by several leading Chinese news agencies.

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